Escape to independence is not the silver bullet from the crisis of Berlin/Dusseldorf for every unemployed, December 18, 2009 – he will be clear, the upswing, but obviously he comes: the economic growth in Germany will be in the coming year at 1.25 percent. The Federal Association of German Volks – and Raiffeisenbanken (BVR) meets this forecast in its latest economic report. The economic recovery takes place in Germany faster and stronger than expected in the summer”, explains BVR Board Member Andreas Martin. The index decline of economic output should amount in 2009 to 4.5 per cent. The improved Outlook on the economic performance in the coming year should but not over this fool that the Outlook for the economy over the medium term remained subdued.
The pace of growth will be lower than even in this summer and autumn in the average of the next year. The economic downturn of the winter 2008/2009 will be compensated therefore expected until 2013 and the private consumption in 2010 according to stagnate or even decline, one believes in BVR. Also the increase in the tariff income will be weaker. Also, rising unemployment constitutes a load factor. The pulse through the fiscal stimulus is substantial, but not sufficient, to compensate for the negative effects”, said Martin.
The saving rate will decline slightly by next year from 11.2 percent to 11.0 percent. The rise in consumer prices will amount to around one percent. Meanwhile, the fear of job loss in Germany grows according to a report in the Handelsblatt on the willingness of entrepreneurship. However: Despite the turnaround of Chambers of Commerce and industry experts see no end to the crisis of of establishment of: there are unemployed out independently become out of necessity, many without clear business idea. According to calculations by the Institute for SME research, 2009 208,000 companies were founded in the first half of the year, 0.2 percent more than in the same period last year. The is as the difference from NET foundations and liquidations was positive with about 5,900. 2008 the number of new companies had fallen in the fourth year in a row, 206,000 “, so the leaf. And further: Marc Evers of the German industry and Commerce (DIHK) sees in the recent development of the typical German pattern: unemployment will rise, also founding interest is rising. “Is problematic, that thereby the quality of the business plans sinke: many take-offs were hastily prepared, four out of ten unemployed founders had a clear business idea.” Udo Nadolski, human resources expert and Managing Director of the Dusseldorf consulting firm Harvey Nash, but warns of generalizations. Although, in particular start-ups in the face of impending or existing unemployment were sometimes not optimally prepared, German university graduates, however, founding willingness is promising.” 54 percent of the top students can be namely according to the current survey of the career network e-fellows.NET and the management consultancy McKinsey & company “titled most wanted – employer study” imagine, to run his own company, about 12 percent of them would even prefer self-employment for a permanent position. Well trained young professionals as founder much rather have the possibility to make own decisions, to act responsibly, to shape new services or products and finally to create jobs”, analyzes Nadolski.